German politics is in turmoil, since on February 10, Angela Merkel´s designated successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (57), stepped down as leader of the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and also announced that she would not be available for the position as Chancellor. She will stay on as Germany’s defense minister and help organize the selection process for the new CDU party leader.
„AKK“ as she is known, was reacting to the political disaster in Thuringia. There, the CDU members of the state parliament voted in a new governor, Thomas Kemmerich, the candidate from the business-friendly Free Democrats(FDP), lining up with right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) under its controversial leader Bjorn Hoecke. Last year, a German court determined that it was allowed -and accurate – to refer to the leader of the Thuringian AfD, Bjoern Hoecke, as a fascist.
The aim of the vote was to block a new term of the former governor from the Left party, Bodo Ramelow, who had been governing the state with a coalition of SPD and Greens. Kemmerich got 45 and Ramelow 44 votes. Hoecke achieved a political coup that can be called historic in Germany´s postwar II history with enormous repercussions. For the first time CDU members of parliament had ignored the somber pledges to their party never to work together with the far-right AfD. It soon became apparent, that what happened in Thuringia caused a political earthquake all over Germany. Far away, on a state visit in South Africa, a stunned chancellor Angela Merkel called for the immediate resignation of the newly elected governor which happened shortly thereafter.
An expert on Germany, Judy Dempsey, senior fellow of Carnegie Europe, puts the events in perspective: „What happened in Thuringia´s regional capital, was also about a post-1945 taboo being broken – cooperating with the far right has been a political no-go in Germany. …What happens in Germany matters. Not only for the country but for Europe. It´s not just because Germany is the European Union´s largest and most successful economy. It´s not just because Angela Merkel, as German Chancellor since 2005, had become a symbol of stability during the euro crisis, Russia´s invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 and the decision by Britain to quit the EU. It´s because how Germany has dealt with it´s past after World War II“.
The failure of „AKK“ to keep her Thuringia party colleagues from voting together with the AfD contingent was the last blunder in her not so fortunate CDU leadership. As a former long-time serving Governor of the state of Saarland, she gave up that position to become general secretary of the CDU party in a close friendship with Merkel. In the next career step on the road to the aspired chancellorship, at the Hamburg party congress on December 7, 2018, she was elected party leader. She had to beat two other contenders: Friedrich Merz (64), a party rival from the days when Merkel became chancellor in 2005, and Jens Spahn (39), the current health-minister. She won in the final ballot with 517 votes from 999 delegates (51,75%) against Merz with 482 votes (48,25%). When announcing her withdrawal AKK indicated that she would work on the process of finding a new CDU leader until this summer who then could be elected at the next regular CDU party congress end of the year.
Merkel struggles to serve out her term.
Now, apart from those two contenders, two more potential candidates could enter the race for party leader and Merkel succession: Armin Laschet, who heads the government of North-Rhine Westphalia, with a population of more than 17 million the largest German state. And Markus Soeder, governor of Bavaria, who heads the powerful Union sister party, CSU.
The mass tabloid „Bild“, which used to be very supportive for Merkel over her 15 years heading four coalition governments, put much of the blame for AKK´s abrupt withdrawal on chancellor Angela Merkel. The paper called for Merkel to step down and accuses her „to have misjudged the two big issues of our time, migration and climate change“ with the consequence that „ the CDU has lost voters to the AfD on the former issue and to the Greens on the latter issue“. This can be taken as an indication how much the end of Merkel suddenly has come into sharper focus.
Also, in its February 15, 2020 issue, the British magazine Economist takes the position: „While the CDU decided which way it wants to take Germany, policy paralysis has descended on Europe´s biggest economy. And a paralyzed Germany means a paralyzed EU, not least because it will take up the rotating EU presidency in the second half of this year. The greatest favor that Mrs. Merkel could do for her country would be to force the pace, by announcing her immediate departure. Germany must not go on like this“
The dismal AKK experience of what happens when the CDU party leadership is separated from the power position of chancellor is hanging over the now starting selection process for the CDU party leadership and the Merkel succession. Both Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merkel have admitted that the powersharing arrangement of separating the CDU leadership from the chancellorship did not work out.
When announcing her withdrawal, AKK promised to stay in office to organize an orderly selection process, to find her successor until this summer and have the new CDU party leader confirmed at the next regular party congress end of this year. Under pressure from some party quarters, especially from the Bavarian sister party CSU, there is talk now of speeding up this process. „We have no time for a month-long beauty contest “, warned Soeder. There are reports now, that AKK will meet with the CDU contenders – and the Bavarian CSU leader – „ in the next days“ and work on a special CDU party congress for electing her successor already in late spring or summer.
As the media battle on the Merkel succession rages on, it becomes clear that the Bavarian CSU leader, who delivered the most inspiring speech at the last CDU party congress, will have an important role in the selection battle. Some speculate that he also may throw his hat into the arena. Merz, who resigned very timely from heading the asset management giant Blackrock in Germany, stands for economic liberalism and social conservatism. He is seen as the candidate for business and industry . And as a conservative rival of Merkel way back he is considered to get back AfD voters in the Eastern states who have left the CDU. Some call Merz „a clock that stopped 20 years ago and started ticking again“.
Laschet is a middle-of-the road well-liked governor who helped Merkel in the refugee crisis and in her cautious handling of the climate change response. He would be the new CDU party leader with whom Merkel could get along for the rest of her present term. That won´t be the case with Merz who seems resolute to move the party more to the conservative side fast. In contrast to Laschet, Merz can be very aggressive and cannot hide his big ego and temper.
Berthold Koehler, one the publishers of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), pointed to the dilemma of any new CDU party head on the way to the chancellor´s office. In his view the easiest way would be a change in the chancellorship. But that Merkel would step down in a year of the German presidency, argues Koehler, is unlikely. Therefore, a newly elected CDU leader would have no choice but to work in „cohabitation“ with an Angela Merkel, who „defends her political legacy like a lioness her offsprings“ and that „Merz or Laschet would no less feel her claws“. In any case, based on the German constitution a chancellor is in a very strong position. So much depends on what Merkel will do.
With Friedrich Merz on the Spiegel cover 15.2.2020 issue) with the question: Darf er jetzt?, the leading weekly magazine opens the Merkel succession drama with the caption: “The Race to Succeed Merkel Germany´s Conservatives Face a Fight for Their Future : Chancellor Angela Merkel´s party is looking for a leader. But its current crisis shows that there is far more at stake. The Christian Democratic Union is fighting for its future direction, and perhaps for its very existence”
The cover story has an opinion survey by the highly respected Infratest dimap on the German population´s view on the candidates. Friedrich Merz is widely considered to be the most likely candidate to replace Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as leader of the CDU. Fully 40 percent of Germans surveyed view him a good chancellor candidate, followed by Bavarian Governor Markus Soeder with 31 percent, North-Rhine-Westphalia Governor Armin Lachet with 30 percent and health-minister Jens Spahn with 24 percent. All three candidates must fear ending up behind the Greens in a coalition government. The Spiegel warns that in the next coalition government the Greens could be the larger party and the CDU/CSU the smaller one.
As to the burning question, how long Merkel will stay in her Berlin chancellor´s office, there is another reality that any newly elected CDU party leader would face: The coalition partner SPD – now with a newly elected duo-leadership of Walter Borjans and Saskia Esken, already made it clear that the present Grand Coalition Agreement was concluded with chancellor Angela Merkel and no potential future successor.
On February 18, also Norbert Roettgen (54), a former environminister in Merkel´s cabinet, and since years heading the prestigeous Foreign Relations Committee in the Bundestag, announced his unexpected decision to also join the race for succession of Chancellor Angel Merkel. Roettgen´s candidacy could complicate the agreed procedure of the main hopefuls to thrash out a solution between them, avoiding a prolonged leadership fight. Entering the race Roettgen declared that the selection process shouldn´t be about the three aspirants only but about „a strategy,substantially positioning the CDU“. Merkel had fired Roettgen as environment minister in 2012 after he lost a state election for governor ot North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany´s most populous state. Since then both have not been on friendly terms.
It took to Monday, Februar 25, when the fog on the future candidate selection process was lifted: On that day, Armin Laschet, the governor of North-Rhine Westphalia, showed up before the national press in Berlin, having teamed up with the former candidate and current health minister Jens Spahn as running mate and designated deputy, and officially declared his candidacy for CDU leader.
On the same day also Friedrich Merz, officially declared his candidacy criticizing the Lanchet-Spahn Duo as a “cartel formation to undercut genuine competition”.
And the CDU leadership announced that sooner than expected, on April 25, 2020, a special congress is scheduled where around 1000 delegates will have to select the coming CDU leader who would be in a priority position to succeed Angela Merkel.
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